The Coronavirus Diaries

The Coronavirus Diaries - Day 5

Friday - March 20, 2020

What is there to say today? Romania up to 308 cases/ no deaths /31 recoveries. Meanwhile, I'm starting to think/see that the economic fallout could have more serious consequences than the virus itself. It is contagious? Does it kill? Would we all rather avoid it? Yes, categorically. But Italy is becoming to look like an outlier as far as the mortality rate - the only number people truly care about. Let's look at the numbers for the five most afflicted countries.

China:
80,977 cases / 3249 deaths / 71,158 recoveries = 4.01% mortality rate and an 87% recovery rate.

Italy:
47,021 cases / 4,032 deaths / 5129 recoveries = 8.57% mortality rate and a 10% recovery rate.

Spain:
20,412 cases / 1,044 deaths/ 1,588 recoveries = 5.11% mortality rate and a 7.77% recovery rate

Germany:
19,844 cases / 58 deaths / 180 recoveries = 0.29% mortality rate and a 0.90% recovery rate.

Iran:
19,644 cases/ 1,433 deaths/ 6,745 recoveries = 7.29% mortality rate and a 34% recovery rate

They don't say much except in China where now that is has been subdued - supposedly - we can see that the rate of recovery is very high. There is still a margin of 9% that could go on either side, but all this number actually does is remind us is that we are working with data in real-time and the true global -and human - impact cannot be determined while the situation unfolds. We do know that COVID19 is dangerous, but not exactly how dangerous. And since co-morbidity appears to play a serious role in the deaths attributed to the Coronavirus, it is also difficult to say to whom and why it is dangerous. So, questions remain, questions that need to be answered soon.

Meanwhile, people are locked in their homes, losing income, losing their livelihoods - even if not their lives - and we are going to have to look back at this someday and answer one question and one question only: was it worth it?

Comments

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